> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.harboros.co/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# The weekly forecast

> The weekly rhythm for keeping your forecast current: bring in what changed, make your renewal calls, read the projection, lock the week.

A forecast in HarborOS isn't something you rebuild from scratch each time. It's projected from your contracts and the calls you've made on them, so keeping it current is mostly a matter of keeping those up to date. The weekly rhythm below is how that happens — and because each step feeds the next, none of it is heavy.

## The weekly loop

1. **Bring in what changed.** Promote any new deals from staging into [Pipeline](/concepts/lenses), and confirm any new contracts so they count toward your [ARR](/get-started/glossary). Nothing affects the forecast until you've done this — see [Judgment is the gate](/concepts/judgment-is-the-gate).
2. **Make your renewal calls.** In Renewals, set the likelihood for what's coming up — likely, at risk, or [churn](/get-started/glossary) — and the change you expect at renewal. This is the single biggest lever on the forecast. (More in [renewal review](/workflows/renewal-review).)
3. **Read the projection.** Open Forecast, pick a horizon — 3, 6, 9, or 12 months — and review the three scenarios below. Every figure traces back to the contracts behind it, so you can check any number rather than take it on faith.
4. **Lock the week.** Take a snapshot in [Portolan](/concepts/portolan). Next week, you compare against it to see exactly what moved.

## The three scenarios

The forecast always shows three lines, so you're looking at a range, not a single guess:

* **Base** — your actual judgment. Each renewal is weighted by the likelihood you set and the change you expect. This is your real forecast.
* **Best** — the ceiling. Everything you haven't ruled out renews: contracts you left unset or marked at risk renew flat, and even churn-flagged ones are assumed to hold. The most that could happen if calls break your way.
* **Worst** — the floor. Only renewals you marked *likely* survive; anything unset, at risk, or flagged churn is treated as gone. The least you'd expect if they don't.

Two pieces make up each line. **Locked** ARR is contracts whose term still covers the month — already committed. **Renewed** ARR is contracts whose term ends in a month, projected forward at your weighting and expected change. You can also toggle promoted **pipeline** on or off to see the upside from deals not yet signed, kept visually separate from what's contracted.

## Why the rhythm matters

Running this weekly means the forecast is never a big reconstruction — it's small updates to calls you've already been making. And the weekly snapshot builds a trail: a record of what you believed each week, so when the number changes you can always show what moved and why.