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A forecast in HarborOS isn’t something you rebuild from scratch each time. It’s projected from your contracts and the calls you’ve made on them, so keeping it current is mostly a matter of keeping those up to date. The weekly rhythm below is how that happens — and because each step feeds the next, none of it is heavy.

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The weekly loop

  1. Bring in what changed. Promote any new deals from staging into Pipeline, and confirm any new contracts so they count toward your ARR. Nothing affects the forecast until you’ve done this — see Judgment is the gate.
  2. Make your renewal calls. In Renewals, set the likelihood for what’s coming up — likely, at risk, or churn — and the change you expect at renewal. This is the single biggest lever on the forecast. (More in renewal review.)
  3. Read the projection. Open Forecast, pick a horizon — 3, 6, 9, or 12 months — and review the three scenarios below. Every figure traces back to the contracts behind it, so you can check any number rather than take it on faith.
  4. Lock the week. Take a snapshot in Portolan. Next week, you compare against it to see exactly what moved.

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The three scenarios

The forecast always shows three lines, so you’re looking at a range, not a single guess:
  • Base — your actual judgment. Each renewal is weighted by the likelihood you set and the change you expect. This is your real forecast.
  • Best — the ceiling. Everything you haven’t ruled out renews: contracts you left unset or marked at risk renew flat, and even churn-flagged ones are assumed to hold. The most that could happen if calls break your way.
  • Worst — the floor. Only renewals you marked likely survive; anything unset, at risk, or flagged churn is treated as gone. The least you’d expect if they don’t.
Two pieces make up each line. Locked ARR is contracts whose term still covers the month — already committed. Renewed ARR is contracts whose term ends in a month, projected forward at your weighting and expected change. You can also toggle promoted pipeline on or off to see the upside from deals not yet signed, kept visually separate from what’s contracted.

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Why the rhythm matters

Running this weekly means the forecast is never a big reconstruction — it’s small updates to calls you’ve already been making. And the weekly snapshot builds a trail: a record of what you believed each week, so when the number changes you can always show what moved and why.